⚠️ IMPORTANT LEGAL DISCLAIMER
This website documents ONE INDIVIDUAL'S personal investment decisions for educational purposes only. This is NOT investment advice, NOT an offer to manage money, and NOT a solicitation for advisory services. The author is NOT a registered investment advisor. Do NOT make investment decisions based on this content. Past performance does not predict future results. All investing involves risk of total loss.
Updated: Jan 5, 2026
A personal investing journal in public markets.
Disciplined evaluation when exceptional companies become publicly available.
While private equity dominates access to high-growth category leaders, individual investors can apply the same rigorous analysis when exceptional companies become available through IPOs. This portfolio uses a systematic 4-filter framework that typically surfaces just 1 exceptional investment every 1-2 years—patience becomes competitive advantage.
The goal: Build concentrated positions in 3-5 category leaders, allowing time for these businesses to compound and deliver transformational returns. Every decision is documented—wins, losses, and lessons learned.
Four-filter system requiring strong performance across all criteria. Subjective assessments, not objective ratings or recommendations.
| Filter | Weight | Key Criteria |
|---|---|---|
| Category Creator/Leader | 30% | Defining new problem/space, 40%+ market share, owns the language |
| Strong Fundamentals | 25% | 30%+ revenue growth, 60%+ gross margins, path to profitability |
| Durable Moat | 25% | Network effects, switching costs, data advantages, regulatory barriers |
| Long Runway | 20% | $50B+ TAM, <10% penetration, multiple expansion paths |
Category leader creating and dominating Zero Trust Data Security.
High-conviction private category leaders being tracked for public market entry.
Agentic AI Development Platform
Note: See "The 95%" below for Databricks—the highest-conviction company currently being tracked, but too expensive at $100B private valuation. Framework criteria met at $30-50B range post-IPO.
Companies that looked exceptional—learning from different rejection patterns.
⚠️ PASS
Good Quality
Market Cap: $42B
Pattern: The $50B Problem
Clear category leader in Cloud Data Platform. Strong fundamentals (26% growth, 72% margins), good moat. Quality company at terrible valuation—would need $420B market cap for 10x (larger than Oracle).
Lesson: Quality ≠ Opportunity. Amazing company at wrong valuation = pass. Framework criteria align at $25-30B market cap range.
⏸️ WATCHLIST
Meets Framework
Current: $160 (34x sales)
Pattern: Meets Framework, Fails Valuation
Qualifies on framework—category leader in edge computing/CDN. BUT trading at 34x sales leaves no margin of safety. Growth decelerating (30% → 25% → 20%). Paying 34x for slowing growth is poor risk/reward.
Lesson: Valuation discipline matters as much as quality. Framework aligns at $140 or below (25x sales threshold).
⏸️ WATCHLIST
Meets Framework, Fails Valuation
Dec 2025: ~$430 (14x sales, $35B cap)
Pattern: Just Below the Bar
Strong NoSQL database leader, but falls short on moat (AWS DocumentDB threat) and runway (already $35B, needs $350B for 10x). Trading at 14x sales for decelerating growth leaves no margin of safety.
Lesson: The difference between "pretty good" and "exceptional" matters. Discipline means saying no to good companies while hunting for great ones at the right price.
✅ TOP WATCHLIST
Highest Conviction
Valuation: $100B (private)
Pattern: Highest Conviction, Wrong Timing
Best company being tracked—invented "Data Lakehouse" category, $2.4B+ ARR growing 50%+. BUT $100B private valuation needs $1T for 10x. Monitoring post-IPO for 30-50% correction (same pattern as SNOW).
Lesson: Patience pays. Framework criteria met at $30-50B market cap range.
The Reality of Disciplined Investing: 95% rejection rate across 15+ companies evaluated. Common failures: weak fundamentals, commoditizing markets, too expensive ($50B+ can't 10x), valuation discipline failures, or wrong timing.
The competitive advantage is saying "no" to 95% of opportunities and holding cash at 3.69% until companies that meet all framework criteria appear at reasonable valuations—roughly every 1-2 years.
Transparent documentation of personal portfolio returns. Updated monthly.
Performance Disclosure: This represents one individual's personal account only. NOT a track record of managing others' money. Performance data documented for personal accountability, not to solicit others to invest similarly.
| Month | Portfolio | S&P 500 | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2025 | +11.8%* | +2.4%* | Partial month (Dec 23-31) |
| *Partial month only (8 trading days). First full month: January 2026 (update posted February 7, 2026) | |||
Performance calculated using time-weighted returns. Updated first Friday of each month. Current position: RBRK purchased at $67.51 (December 23, 2025), currently at $75.47 (+11.8% as of January 2, 2026).
⚠️ New Track Record: Performance tracking begins December 2025. Professional investors require minimum 3-5 year track records to evaluate skill versus luck. This data is published for personal accountability only—creating a permanent record that cannot be revised with hindsight. Judge results over 10 years (target: 2035), not 1-2 months.
Includes methodology, calculations, and full disclosure
Quarterly portfolio updates documenting positions, analysis process, and lessons learned. Educational commentary, not investment advice.
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The principles guiding every investment decision.
Index funds provide market returns (~10% annually) through broad diversification. This approach seeks transformational outcomes through concentrated positions in 3-5 category leaders, accepting higher volatility for potential 10x+ returns over 10-year horizons. Quality compounds, diversification dilutes.
Companies that create new categories capture 76% of market value and maintain 50%+ market share. This approach invests in category designers, not category participants—businesses that define entirely new markets rather than compete in existing ones.
Exceptional returns require 7-10 years of patient holding through market volatility. This approach typically surfaces 1 investment every 1-2 years—patience and saying "no" to 95% of opportunities becomes competitive advantage.
This approach combines Graham's margin of safety with Buffett's quality focus—only investing when exceptional businesses trade at reasonable valuations. Staying within a circle of competence, primarily software and technology where product management experience provides direct understanding of category positioning and technical moats.